Iulian Fota: "By Donald Trump's linking of the two files, Israel and Ukraine become causes of the West”

Former Secretary of State at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and former presidential advisor, Iulian Fota, told the BURSA newspaper that Israel and Ukraine are becoming causes of the West by the linking of the two files made by US President Donald Trump following the telephone conversation he had with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Iulian Fota told us: "We must point out that, starting from the discussion with Vladimir Putin, this is the first time that Donald Trump connects the two files, Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Iran. Israel is in the same situation as Ukraine. The Russians want to destroy Ukraine and the West does not allow this, and Iran wants to destroy the state of Israel. Practically at this moment, Israel and Ukraine are becoming causes of the West, especially since the current confrontation in the Middle East is also an anti-Western one on the part of Iran and those close to it. It is interesting to observe how the balance of interests for the Americans and the Russians will work. It will be interesting at a strategic level to see how this competition and confrontation between the West and its adversaries will evolve. We may see concessions that the Russians will have to make in Ukraine, if they want to receive aid, or American concessions in Iran, in the Kremlin's desire to save Iran.”

Regarding the effects that the current conflict between Israel and Iran has on Europe, the former Secretary of State in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs told us: "This conflict does not have direct effects on Europe, but indirect ones through the cost of oil, high prices and other economic effects. It remains to be seen what kind of balance of forces we will have in the Middle East, because, in my opinion, Russia and China will not let Iran be defeated, because such an imbalance of power in the region would disadvantage them, which the authorities in the Kremlin and Beijing do not want. For now, the two global powers are not interfering because they believe that the regime will not fall and will absorb the shock of the Israeli strikes, and if the Israelis continue the attacks and Iran's weakness increases, the Russians and the Chinese will intervene diplomatically to protect the country in question.”

Mr. Fota believes that at this moment all options are on the table regarding the conflict between Israel and Iran. "There are also options for immediately stopping the conflict, if Iran is reasonable. But this exchange of blows could last weeks or months. We are at a crossroads and we have worse options ahead of us, but at this point it is impossible to say with certainty what will happen next. A viable solution would be for Iran to remain in its civilian nuclear program in compliance with the obligations it has already assumed and to abandon its hidden intention to obtain a nuclear weapon. Then, there is another aspect: the regime in Tehran does not have the international credibility to try to impose its point of view at the negotiating table. However, I do not believe that political regime change in Iran is imminent or approaching quickly as others claim. I believe that the regime in Tehran will withstand the current crisis caused by the Israeli strikes, especially since the Iranian opposition does not seem united. At this point there is too much wishful thinking regarding the fall of the regime in Tehran from those who believe that this will happen. something”, the former presidential advisor told us.

He mentions that in the current context he does not foresee an expansion of the Israeli-Iranian conflict at a global level, especially since the Arab states in the region do not want to get involved in this dispute. "The expansion could only have been done through Iranian proxies, but the Houthi rebels do not have the necessary capabilities, even if they might want a confrontation with Israel, and the Hezbollah and Hamas groups are too weak at the moment following the actions of the Israeli army in the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon over the past year. Basically, there is no one left to answer on behalf of Iran and for Iran in the region, except for the regime in Tehran. Iran is in a moment of great weakness, it cannot control its airspace - which for a state represents an element of bankruptcy of political power. Not being able to control your territory and defend it against attacks by enemy aircraft represents a great weakness, a great failure for the leaders in Tehran. For now, I think there are no signs that the bankruptcy is large enough to lead to a change in the political regime in Iran and I believe the regime will survive these blows. That is provided that other Western states do not intervene. And this means that Iran does not major mistakes that would lead to the involvement of Western states on Israel's side. Such as an involvement of the US. Such an involvement would change the datas of the current conflict between Iran and Israel. If hostilities remain at the current level, I do not see the regime in Tehran falling in the coming period”, stated Iulian Fota.

The former Secretary of State in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs claims that we must also wait to see the reaction of the Islamic world to this conflict, because there are important actors - such as Pakistan - that have come forward with pleas for Iran.

"It remains to be seen to what extent Russia will be willing to support Iran, what role China will assume. On the other hand, we know very well that Israel is a country with limited resources and has never wanted a long-term confrontation. For Israel, the longer the military confrontation lasts, the higher the costs. And Israel has two specific objectives: the destruction of the Iranian nuclear program and the fall of the political regime. The first will be partially achieved, especially since the Iranian nuclear industry is affected, at least superficially, by the Israeli attacks of the last few days, the destruction being significant. But I do not see the second objective being achieved in the short to medium term; I do not see the fall of the regime at this time”, reiterated Iulian Fota.

Regarding a possible decline in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's popularity among Israeli citizens, Mr. Fota claims that this depends on what military successes the head of the Tel Aviv government will record.

Iulian Fota concluded: "War is not waged for the sake of war, but to achieve certain objectives. And Israel's objectives are clear. The first, the military weakening of Iran, is achieved to a fairly large extent. The second - the destruction of the nuclear program - is partially achieved, and regarding the third, I do not believe that Israel will succeed in creating the favorable conditions for forcing a change in the regime in Tehran”.