Sea level rise: an imminent danger

A study published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment warns that sea levels will continue to rise dangerously, testing humanity's resilience until the end of the century and beyond, even in the optimistic scenario in which global warming is limited to +1.5°C, AFP reports.

• The current rate has doubled - and will double again

According to researchers, in the last three decades, sea levels have risen by 10 cm, with the rate of this rise doubling. If the trend continues, by 2100 the pace could reach 1 cm per year, an acceleration that would have devastating consequences. "Even if we manage to limit warming to +1.5°C, sea levels could reach thresholds that will make adaptation extremely difficult," warns Chris Stokes, a professor at Durham University and the study's lead author.

• Global impact: submerged cities and huge costs

More than 230 million people live less than 1 meter above sea level. More than 1 billion live less than 10 meters above sea level. An additional 20 cm of rise without protection measures would generate annual damages of $ 1 trillion in 136 major coastal cities, according to previous studies.

• Major causes: melting glaciers and expanding oceans

Sea level rise has two main sources: The melting of ice caps and mountain glaciers; Thermal expansion of the oceans, which absorb more than 90% of the additional heat generated by human activity.

Although the Paris Agreement aims to limit warming to +1.5°C, the current trajectory indicates an increase of +2.7°C by the end of the century, according to the latest climate projections. Such a development would significantly amplify the risks to infrastructure, populations and biodiversity.

• Underestimating the danger

The study authors point out that previous reports by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) underestimated the contribution of ice sheets due to scientific uncertainties. The new research tips the scales in the direction of a more severe and rapid impact than previously thought. Even in the best-case climate scenario, the effects of sea level rise will be dramatic, requiring urgent and costly adaptation measures for coastal cities and vulnerable communities.